Peak Oil Theory
Nine years into the 21st century, the world remain heavily dependent on the fuel that powered the last hundred years: crude oil. There is no risk that we are running out of oil, but chances of being able to match with projected growth in demand over the medium term is seriously questioned.
What is Peak Oil?
The term “peak oil” is used to describe the point at which the earth’s supply of oil will no longer be able to meet our energy needs. Oil is not a renewable energy source, and therefore can and will be exhausted at some point in the future.
Theory
In the 1950s a U.S. geologist working for Shell, Dr. M King Hubbert, noticed that oil discoveries graphed over time, tended to follow a bell shape curve. In 1956 Hubbert predicted that production from the US would peak between 1965 and 1970. US continental oil production did peak in 1971. The U.S. of course was able to import oil from elsewhere, and life continued there with only minimal interruption. When global oil production peaks however, the implications will be far greater.
So when will oil peak globally?
Hubbert went on to predict a global oil peak between 1995 and 2000. He may have been close to the mark except that the oil shocks of the 1970s slowed our use of oil. But now we have two camps one the optimists, who tell us the earth currently has more than three trillion barrels of conventional, recoverable oil resources, and that to date we have only consumed one trillion.
On the other side we have some scholars saying we have or are near to peak. Their calculations are also wise enough. Eight of the top oil producers in the world have already peaked. US in 1971, Canada in1973, Iran in 1974, Indonesia in 1977, Russia in 1987, UK in 1999, Norway in 2001 and Mexico in 2002, while China and Saudi Arabia are about to peak. The only one among the top producers that has capability to increase is Iraq and here comes some politics.
The interplay between oil peak and geo politics
As the world’s number...
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