77th Euroconstruct Conference Denmark
DK
Denmark
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies www.cifs.dk Anders Bjerre abj@cifs.dk 63
© EUROCONSTRUCT, June 2014
1. Summary and Conclusions
Denmark
Compared to the estimates of the previous
EUROCONSTRUCT report, construction fared considerably worse in 2013, according to the preliminary official statistics. This means the figures for
2013 have been downgraded considerably for new construction of all types. Total construction activity in Denmark declined by 1.4% in 2013.
share have been growing for the last year, although house prices are still declining in some regions. The main worry is if we get a rise in interest rates due to European trends at a time when domestic trends are weak: In that case, home prices could fall again.
It is not a very likely scenario, but remains a possibility. Another worry is related to increasing tax on property values, which may harm construction activity in the medium term. We expect positive trends to outweigh negative ones, however.
We forecast an upturn in the general economy as well as in construction in 2014-2016. In line with many other observers (eg., OECD), we have previously been disappointed, and have downgraded our forecasts according: The present forecast indicates a slower and later upturn than our previous forecasts.
Total construction should rise by around 2.5% in
2014, with a somewhat faster rise in the following years. Total construction declined by 1.4% in 2013. In the next years, we forecast total construction growing at 2.5% in 2014, rising to 4.3% in 2016. The general economy is growing, and the seasonally adjusted business cycle indicator for construction Spring
2014 was considerably above the levels of 2013. Also, starts were up 6% in 1st quarter of 2014 compared to
2013, but part of this rise may be due to more clement weather.
Total Construction Output by Sector from 2010 to 2016
Certain fields of new construction are forecast to have very high growth rates. Present levels of new building
Denmark
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies www.cifs.dk Anders Bjerre abj@cifs.dk 63
© EUROCONSTRUCT, June 2014
1. Summary and Conclusions
Denmark
Compared to the estimates of the previous
EUROCONSTRUCT report, construction fared considerably worse in 2013, according to the preliminary official statistics. This means the figures for
2013 have been downgraded considerably for new construction of all types. Total construction activity in Denmark declined by 1.4% in 2013.
share have been growing for the last year, although house prices are still declining in some regions. The main worry is if we get a rise in interest rates due to European trends at a time when domestic trends are weak: In that case, home prices could fall again.
It is not a very likely scenario, but remains a possibility. Another worry is related to increasing tax on property values, which may harm construction activity in the medium term. We expect positive trends to outweigh negative ones, however.
We forecast an upturn in the general economy as well as in construction in 2014-2016. In line with many other observers (eg., OECD), we have previously been disappointed, and have downgraded our forecasts according: The present forecast indicates a slower and later upturn than our previous forecasts.
Total construction should rise by around 2.5% in
2014, with a somewhat faster rise in the following years. Total construction declined by 1.4% in 2013. In the next years, we forecast total construction growing at 2.5% in 2014, rising to 4.3% in 2016. The general economy is growing, and the seasonally adjusted business cycle indicator for construction Spring
2014 was considerably above the levels of 2013. Also, starts were up 6% in 1st quarter of 2014 compared to
2013, but part of this rise may be due to more clement weather.
Total Construction Output by Sector from 2010 to 2016
Certain fields of new construction are forecast to have very high growth rates. Present levels of new building